Biases

In engineering, there is a tool called 5xWhy? that we use to determine the root cause of a technical problem. We sometimes dare to go a step further and use the 6xWhy? method. Why? Well, because that is usually where we find the systematic error behind the root cause. It’s also known as the Managerial Root Cause. Not because it’s always the manager’s fault if we have a technical problem, but because we leave an open door for people’s biases to find their way into the processes.

Let’s look at the example of me not getting my coffee this morning:

Problem: The coffee machine is not delivering coffee at the brewing outlet.

1st Why: Why is the coffee machine not delivering coffee at the brewing outlet? A: The brewing mechanism is not functioning.

2nd Why: Why is the brewing mechanism not functioning? A: The water is not reaching the brewing unit.

3rd Why: Why is the water not reaching the brewing unit? A: The water line or reservoir is clogged.

4th Why: Why is the water line or reservoir clogged? A: There is a blockage caused by scale buildup.

5th Why: Why was there scale buildup? A: Regular maintenance and cleaning were not performed.

So far, so good. We seem to have the technical root cause. Taking it one step further:

6th Why: Why was regular maintenance and cleaning not performed? A: There is no clear accountability or process in place to ensure maintenance tasks are completed.

This would be the systematic root cause, which can be easily addressed by defining the roles and responsibilities. Now the real problem starts when we realise that the answer to this question is not true. In the current example, obviously, I am responsible for descaling my coffee machine. So we have accountability, but still no coffee…

Now comes the point where we redefine the problem. It seems that my not getting coffee is just a symptom of the real problem. So let’s start again with the redefined problem description:

Problem: I am ignoring the blinking descale light on the coffee machine.

1st Why: Why am I ignoring the blinking descale light? A: I believe the machine will continue working despite the warning. (Optimism Bias – Overestimating the likelihood of positive outcomes while downplaying risks)

2nd Why: Why do I believe the machine will continue working? A: It worked before, even when I ignored the warning. (Confirmation Bias – Focusing on past examples that support my belief while dismissing the possibility of failure)

3rd Why: Why did I rely on past experiences rather than addressing the warning? A: It’s easier to wait and deal with it later than to descale now. (Present Bias — a.k.a. procrastination – valuing the convenience of delaying action over a potential future benefit)

4th Why: Why do I prioritise immediate convenience over preventive action? A: Descaling feels like a low-priority task compared to other things I need to do. (Status Quo Bias – Preferring to maintain the current situation rather than taking action that disrupts routine)

5th Why: Why does descaling feel like a low-priority task? A: There’s no immediate consequence of not descaling. (Normalcy Bias – Assuming the situation will remain normal and no significant issue will arise, even in the face of warning signs)

6th Why: ….

I believe that by now, you have found a million other reasons why we sometimes find ourselves in situations like these. And yes, you see it correctly; once we start going down this rabbit hole, there is no end to it… We always have a good answer for whatever you might ask.

And this is why I keep saying: "Every technical problem can be traced back to a personal problem."

I already put in parentheses behind every answer the biases involved. And as we are all different, in the case of the same problem, there can be many answers with many different biases behind them. These are the reasons why we cannot fix everything in an organization with roles, responsibilities, and processes. There will always be a personal factor involved, as long as we are working with people. The work cannot be done on a system level. Here, we need individual responsibility in recognising our own biases and working against them.

This might just be my coffee machine, but based on my experience, most technical issues and failures develop along the same (or similar) train of thought. And this is just on the individual level. Let’s not yet start on the problems that can arise when we put two or more people together. :)

So what to do if we want to stop being part of the problem and start being part of the solution?